In late November, the world watched on again as Syria fell into civil war with rebels marching towards the capital of Damascus. The Middle Eastern country, which had been through decades of dictatorial rule under the al-Assad family, rejoiced with people running into the street to celebrate when rebels ousted despot Bashar Al-Assad.
However, as one brutal dictatorship ends, questions are left to be answered.
Who are the Rebels?
Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are a rebel group who formed in 2017 by Abu Muhammad al-Julani who himself has been linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS through his previous rebel group, the infamous Al-Nusra Front. This is the reason why HTS has been placed on the US, UK and the UN's terrorist organisations lists. Although al-Julani claims that HTS was created as a deliberate act to distance itself from Al-Qaeda, western nations have remained doubtful over the legitimacy of these claims. HTS are the largest rebel group in Syria and now that their march on Damascus has been successful, we await to see what this will mean in terms of their governance. We do know they are anti-democracy, believing that it takes away from the power of God, and so more questions are raised regarding their beliefs towards the many groups of people that make up Syria’s population.
Although HTS are currently in the strongest position there are many other rebel groups that will be keen to have their voices heard. The Syrian National Democratic Alliance represent the Kurdish population in the north-east of Syria and had previously accepted Assad rule as long as they were granted some form of autonomy over their regions.
They are currently embroiled in a conflict against the Turkish-backed militias of the Syrian National Army, whose aim it is to remove the Kurds from Syria. To the south there is the New Syrian Army who have received backing from the US, however with Donald Trump due to take office in 5 weeks at time of writing this will more than likely be a short-lived benefit. All of these groups played a part in the ousting of Assad. It is HTS, however, who seem to have the best chance and most desire to take the hot seat next.
Who will replace Assad in Syria?
It is hard to tell at the moment, but Abu Muhammad al-Julani is currently the leading figure. Although there are many players in Syria’s power struggle, some factions are shying away from the vacancy. The Kurdish rebel groups are typically introspective in terms of Syrian politics, fighting to ensure their rights and land is respected rather than for control of Syria at-large. Turkish backed militias in the north are the same, acting on behalf of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has been publicly anti-Assad in the past. That leaves Lebanon's Hezbollah and the remaining ISIS fighters, both of which have been severely weakened from the attacks of Israel and the US, respectively. The result is a massive power vacuum eager for someone to take the reins.
What is for certain is that the Kremlin, Erdogan and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu will be watching the events unfold with intense interest.
The Russians have pulled their ships out of their ports and anchored them off the coast as well as pulling their military out of Syria, although the Kremlin have said they are willing to talk to whoever ends up in power. This is hardly unexpected since the country allows them to dock their military vessels within the Mediterranean as well as Syria being their gate to the Middle East.
Turkey have been a big player in the Syrian civil war. Whilst the US focused on ISIS forces at the time, Erdogan had his eyes set firmly on the Assad regime and so the recent events will come as a victory. However, they will be keen to insert a Turkey-friendly leader in Assad's place. This is mainly due to the fact that Assad had, in a bid to continue his reign, conceded the land in the north-east of Syria to the Kurds, allowing them to have some autonomous control of the region. To Erdogan, this was strengthening Turkish Kurds in their bid for control over their regions within Turkey.
US involvement in Syria has been well documented and critiqued over the years. Their controversial use of unmanned drones during the Syrian revolution was dialled back after the Obama years. Donald Trump's isolationist politics meant that US involvement globally stepped back, especially in Syria. Under Joe Biden, however, this was somewhat reversed, whilst public opinion largely prevented any significant interference.
As usual with any global issue, the White House will be paying special attention. Biden’s administration are already scrambling to implement successful foreign policy within his final five weeks in office, sending US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, to meet with Erdogan to discuss the issues in Syria. Trump, alternatively, has already made his feelings known regarding the Syrian situation, preferring to let the situation “play out”, which implies he’d rather be a soft touch with HTS than get involved in the country that ruined Obama’s reputation.
Benjamin Netanyahu has also taken a keen interest in Syria. Israeli forces have moved into the Golan Mountain region in recent days. Although Netanyahu was not a supporter of Assad the news of militant Islamist rebels taking power of the country will not leave him feeling particularly comfortable, and his immediate response has been to send significant airstrikes into the country with the alleged intention of destroying Assad's military stockpiles so HTS cannot get their hands on them. Despite this he will undoubtedly see the removal of an Iranian-backed leader as a win and an opportunity to work with the likes of Erdogan in replacing him with a leader sympathetic to Israel’s continued effort for dominance in the area. The move to place troops in the Golan Mountain region however, would suggest Netanyahu is not taking any risks especially since al-Julani’s family originate from the same region and were displaced during the Six Day War with Israel in 1967.
What happens now?
What will happen in the coming months and years is almost impossible to estimate. It is most likely that it will be more of the same under a new name, with Syria continuing to be the backdrop for another proxy war in the Middle East. However, with Donald Trump’s presidency on the horizon it looks as if the US will take a back seat, allowing Turkish influence in the region to grow. Israel seems as if it is fighting on every front at the moment, so the ousting of Assad potentially provides an opportunity to work to appoint an Israel friendly leader, although the current bombing of 'military targets' in Damascus and the move to position IDF troops on the Israel-Syria border hint at Israel’s continued violence in the region not stopping anytime soon.
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Cullen Holas is a featured writer for Left Brain Media. Find the rest of his work here.
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